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December 2006

Is this a trend? This month, for the second consecutive month, Single Family end-of-month inventory increased modestly, only +1.7%, and the end-of-month inventory for Condo/Townhouse was again less than last year, -8.3%. The 1.7% increase in Single Family inventory was the smallest increase since November 2005! The decrease in Condo/Townhouse inventory was the largest decrease since this column started in April 2005.

Two other encouraging areas were the Sales and the Absorption Rate for Condo/Townhouse. Total Sales were down by only one unit. However, Sales were actually higher in all areas but one (JFS). JFS was also the only area where the Condo/Townhouse Absorption Rate was higher.

Days on Market continues to be an area of concern. Days on Market increased in all areas except JFN in both Single Family and Condo/Townhouse.

As this column is being written, Denver is in the midst of a snow-covered deep freeze. Let's hope the weather does not disrupt our business too much. We'll just have to "wait 'til next year" to find out.View the numbers.

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Just maybe. Just maybe, we are on the verge of something good happening!! Single Family end of month inventory +4.0% was the smallest increase we have seen since November 2005 and the end of month inventory for Condo/Townhouse was actually less than last year - 7.1%!! This combination is a first!

Yes, there were fewer sales in both categories than last year, but there were two areas that reported increased sales (JFW & JNC). Notice the sales increase for Homes in NSW +33.0%. The sales drop for Condo/Townhouse was bad - 27.5% but, not as bad as last month when it was down - 36.8%.

With only one exception in both Homes (JFS) and Condo/Townhouse (JNC) days on market continue to be longer. This report in total is not something to "write home" about, but it does give us a glimmer of hope. A hope, that we will turn the corner in this new year of 2007. Happy New Year. View the numbers.

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When "he" said, "It's not over "til it's over," "he" wasn't talking about the game of real estate. But, "he" could have been. Our real estate slow down is not over. (Notice, it's a slow down not a bubble bursting.) The numbers for October do not show much change. That could be the extent of this report. But let's dig a little deeper. The increase in single family end of month (EOM) inventory was only +9.4%. That's the smallest increase over last year since January 2006 and the sales decrease was only -8.4%. That's the smallest drop since June 2006. Sales actually increased in 3 of 6 of our MLS areas. Sales in NSW increased +16.8%.

Jefferson County's Condo/townhouse inventory only rose by +1.3%, the smallest increase since August 2005. The EOM inventory for condo/townhouses in NSW was -3.4% LESS than last year.

A few years from now, many will look back on this time, reminiscing on the challenges and the successes of helping people navigate through these rough waters and smile. Others will not. Which group will you be in? A positive, confident outlook will help us to concentrate on the basics and to still be a player when this slow down is over.View the numbers.

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Kermit, the frog said, "It's not easy being green." One could paraphrase that and not find much disagreement. "It's not easy being a REALTOR." It's also hard to be a "cock-eyed optimist" when one looks at the figures for September. Where's the "half full" part of the glass?

Sales in all areas of Jefferson County were less than last year. Home sales were off 17.5% and condo/townhomes were off a whopping 36.8%! End of month home inventory was up 13.9% and for condo/townhomes it's up (only) 5.6%. The absorption rate was higher in all areas, and days on market were longer in all but three areas.

There really is good news for buyers. Even move-up buyers who have to sell their existing homes. They may not make as much on their sale, but they certainly will not have to pay as much to move up. There is a wide selection from which to choose, and interest rates are still excellent. (Remember the 1980's when interest was 18%??)

We, who were in business in the eighties, did not find it easy, but we survived. And all of us now in the business will also be survivors if we concentrate on the "nuts and bolts" of our chosen profession and not concentrate on all of the negatives. View the numbers.

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The picture is not improving. August end of month (EOM) Single Family inventory continues to be more than it was last year and sales for the month continue to be less than last year. The Absorption Rate was longer in all but one area (JNC) and the Days on Market were also longer in all but one area (JFW) where it was equal to last year.) This is not good news! However, the increase in inventory and the decrease in sales were not as dramatic as they were for the month of July.

For Condos/Townhouses it was more of the same. Listings up, sales down, Absorption Rate longer and increased Days on Market.

The "good news" albeit minimum is that EOM Single Family inventory was less than at the end of June or July and that sales were 9.5% more than were sold during July. The EOM condo/townhouse inventory did not increase. It was the same as last month. The number of sold condo/townhouse was the highest monthly total since April 2006.View the numbers.

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Finding good news to report on this month is much like trying to find "fly specks in pepper," there may be some, but you have to look very closely to find them.

The specks: Condo/Townhouse end of month inventory was down from the record high of last month, but inventory still rose by 10.5% over last year. Four of six areas had slightly increased sales, and overall for Jefferson County sales were almost equal to last year. The Absorption Rate was actually less in three areas.

Even a "cockeyed optimist," however, would have trouble finding much to cheer about for Single Family homes. Inventory continued its upward climb by increasing 21.8% to 3,080 units. A new record! Sales dropped by 20.2% to 570 units, 150 units less than were sold in June 2006. The "speck" here is that the Days on Market for Jefferson County South were less by 4 days. View the numbers.

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An old time radio announcer started his program with "there's good news tonight." This month there really is some good news, albeit small and not in many areas or categories. Let's look at the good news first. Sales of single family homes increased this month in four of the six Jefferson County areas: JFC, JNC, JFW & JSC and in NSW! The Absorption Rate was better only in JFW. JFW also reported improvement in several areas at the end of May. The final bit of good news, the days on market for Condo/Townhouses was less in areas; JFN, JFS, and JFW. NSW Condo/Townhouse saw improvements in all areas!

Now for "the rest of the story." End of month inventory continues to climb. Single Family home inventory was up 21.8% and Condo/Townhouse inventory was up 16.9%. Condo/Townhouse sales dropped 20.1%. It's interesting to note that the Average Asking Price has dropped in three areas for Single Family homes. Also, the Average Selling Price, even without taking concessions into consideration, was lower in three areas of Single Family and five areas of Condo/Townhouses. View the numbers.

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There's not very much good news in the figures for the month of May. Inventories continue to rise and sales continue to be less than last year. However, the increase in home inventory was "only" +17.9% compared to April's +20.5% and sales were off by "only" -2.7% vs. -16.2% last month. (That's good news?) JFW did show improvement in the number of Sales, Absorption Rate and Days on Market. The end of month inventory, 2871, was the largest since this report started in April 2005.

The Condo/Townhouse market continued on its negative path. Inventory was up +24.0% vs +15.9 last month. Sales were "only" down -13.2% compared to -17.6% at the end of April. Once again JFW was the only area of Condo/Townhouses showing an improvement in Sales, Absorption Rate and Day on Market. The end of month inventory, 1550, was also the highest since April 2005.

In an attempt to make this report of more use and timely, it can be obtained on line at www.JCAR.com about the 15th of each month. Just go to JCAR website and click into REALTOR® Resources and then to MLS Statistics. View the numbers.

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Up, Up and Away. That seems to be the direction our market is going. The end of month inventory is "Up, Up" and the sales seem to be going "Away."

Even though a new MLS area has been added to the report this month, NSW - North Suburban West, the numbers being examined in total are only for the MLS areas within Jefferson County.

The end of month inventory of unsold homes was up 20.5%, the highest increase over last year since this column started in April 2005! It was also the largest inventory of homes since then. To make matters worse sales dropped 16.2%, again the biggest drop we've seen, and the actual number of units sold was less than we sold last month in March. And as might be expected the Absorption Rate was longer in all areas.

Condos/Townhouses faired no better. Inventory jumped 15.9% to 1428 units, the highest number of unsold units since April 2005. Sales dropped 17.6% to 168 units, less than the number sold in March, and the Absorption Rate was longer in all but one area (JNC).

With rising inventory, higher interest rates and fewer sales, the challenge of "proper pricing" is stronger than ever. The old adage of "location, location, location" has been replaced with "price, price, price." View the numbers.

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There's not a bromide appropriate to this month's results. Owners/sellers must believe that we are going to have a great real estate market since they have given us a record number of properties to sell. But we did not have a record sales volume. The 2,543 homes for sale as of the end of March 2006 were the most since the end of August 2005 and represented a 17.8% increase over March 2005. Unfortunately, sales increased by only two homes. Therefore, the Absorption Rate had a sizeable increase and the Days on Market were longer in all but one area (JFW).

Likewise, the end of month Condo/Townhouse inventory jumped up 11.9% over last year and was the highest end of month inventory since June 2005. The good news for Condo/Townhouses is that sales did increase 9.6%. However, because of the increased inventory, the Absorption Rate was higher and the Days on Market were more in all but two areas (JFN & JFW).

Let's hope that the slight increase in interest rates we are seeing doesn't further erode our sales activity and that the traditional spring buying activity actually picks up.

NOTE: The $1,032,814 in MJN is correct. View the numbers.

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I remember my mother using the phrase "A watched pot never boils." I don't remember the context, but I'm sure she was not using it to describe the real estate market in my hometown. Even so, I'll take a little poetic license and use it to reference what is happening in our market.

Our "watched" market is not boiling. It's at best luke warm. Overall, end of month home inventory continues to be higher this year than it was last year; a trend that started in October 2005. Sales are basically even with last year. This is a disappointment since January saw a 12.7% increase in sales. Only 3 areas had increased sales and took longer to sell a home this February in 5 of our 6 areas.

The situation for Condo/Townhouses is a bit "warmer." Listings are not up as much as they were last month (+4.3% February vs +8.8% January). Sales this year are even with last year, and Days on Market are less in 4 of 6 areas.

As spring approaches and our outside temperature starts to rise, let's hope our real estate activity also "warms" up. View the numbers.

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The headline for December's report was "Wait 'til next year," and reported overall higher inventory and fewer sales for the month. Obviously, this is "next year" and January does have a few encouraging numbers. Detached home sales in Jefferson County increased by 12.7%, the Absorption Rate was down slightly less and only 2 sub areas had an increased number of Days on Market. However, the end of month inventory of unsold homes increased for the fourth consecutive month.

The Condo/townhouse picture does not have many bright spots. The end of month inventory continues to be higher than last year, a trend that has existed since August. Sales dropped a "whopping" 61.4% with only 124 sales and 1 area had an Absorption Rate less than last year. On the positive side, only 2 areas had an increased number of Days on Market. The best since August. Hope still springs eternal.

A word of caution, do not put too much emphasis on average asking princes and selling prices, because they are just that. To prove the point just look at those numbers for homes, in the MCC area. We know asking prices have not increased that much and that selling prices have not dropped that much. There's also the issue of concessions and their impact on selling prices.View the numbers.

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