August 2007

The month of August did not have many surprises. End of Month inventory continues to be less than last year for both Single Family homes (-9.4%) and Condo/townhomes -21.4%. Unfortunately, sales in both categories were less than last year: Single Family -9.0% and Condo/townhomes -5.9%. In spite of the totals, three areas of Single Family JFS, JFW and JSC had sales equal to or greater than a year ago, as did JFW, JNC and JSC areas for Condo/townhomes.

Perhaps the best news in this month's figures was the Days on Market. All but one area in each of the categories reported fewer days. This was the result of lower inventories. The Absorption Rate was mixed. Some had dramatic improvements while others had disappointing increases.

This is my final article and analysis. By the time your read this, I'll be totally retired. I've proudly called myself a REALTOR for 32 great years. I've made some wonderful life long friends, but it is time to attend to my fishing, stamp collecting, genealogy and yes, my wife of 48 years. JCAR is one of the best organizations I've had the privilege of joining thanks to the activity and cooperation of each member. Go JCAR!! View the numbers.

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July 2007

The trend of lower end of month inventory (EOM) continues. For the seventh month in a row for Single Family homes and for the ninth consecutive month for Condo/Townhouses EOM inventory was less! This was true for all areas of Single Family and all but one (JFW) for Condo/Townhouses.

July sales of Single Family homes were exactly equal to last year. YEA! Normally being equal is not something to brag about, but with results of the last two months, let's at least be a bit happy. The really good news resulting from lower inventory and even sales shows up in the Absorption Rate and Days on Market. Only JFS had a longer Absorption Rate than last year and only three areas (JFC, JFS, JFW) had longer Days on Market.

Although July sales of Condo/Townhouses were off 6.0%, because EOM inventory was 21.7% less, both the Absorption Rate and Days on the Market improved. All but two areas (JFS, JNC) had an improved Absorption Rate and all but two areas (JFW, JNC) had improved Days on Market.

Now that we are coming toward the end of the traditional strong summer selling season, what does the future hold for the normally slowing fall/winter season? Ah, what we would give for a good crystal ball. We do know that the future is the future and that if we continue to do the basics we can and will help the future become the present.View the numbers.

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June 2007

The turnaround hoped for in last month's column did not happen during June. The month of June ended with the same type of results as May did. Condo/townhouse sales were higher than June of last year (+2.6%) and Single Family sales were down (10.1%.) End of Month inventory continues to be less than last year in both categories. The effect of the reduced inventories is reflected in both the Absorption Rate and Days of Market. The Absorption Rate was better in four of the six areas for Single Family (JFC, JFN, JNC, and JSC) and better in all but one area (JFW) for Condo/townhouse. Likewise, the Days on Market improved in three of the six areas for both groups. Some had significant improvement. Single Family (JFN) 35% and Condo/townhouse (JNC) 39.7% fewer Days on Market.View the numbers.

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May 2007

The positive April sales trend Condo/Townhouse continued for May. Sales were up 3.2%! Unfortunately, the positive April results for Single Family homes were not duplicated in May. Sales were down 1.4%, but only by nine sales. Three areas (JFN, JFS and JSC) did have sales equal to or greater than last year. And, there was still some other good news hidden in the other numbers! The Absorption Rate was better in all but one area (JNC) and the Days on Market were fewer in all but two areas (JFN and JSC). This is the result of the End of Month (EOM) inventory, for the fifth month in a row, being lower (16.9%).

The Condo/Townhouse picture did continue in the right direction with most calculations showing improvements. EOM inventory was down 22.8% overall, with only JFS finishing the month higher than last year. Three areas (JNC, JFW and JSC) had increased sales. Four areas (JFN, JFS, JNC and JSC) reported better Absorption Rates and three areas (JFC, JFN and JFS) had fewer Days on Market.

The sports fan always says at the end of a poor season "Wait 'til next year." The REALTOR says "Wait 'til next month." Ever the optimist, it appears the real estate market is improving and this month we'll see it all turn around. View the numbers.

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IT FINALLY HAPPENED. We turned the corner.

We sold More Single Family homes and Condo/Townhouses during April 2007 than were sold during April 2006! Single Family sales were up 16.0% and Condo/Townhouses sales were up 4.2%. The 574 Single Family sales were the highest monthly sales since August 2006. Condo/Townhouse sales were 6 less than last month.

Not only did we have more sales during April, we now also have had more sales, Year-to-Date, this year over last year for both Single Family and Condo/Townhouses. View the numbers.

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There really is good news for the month of March!!! End of month inventory is less than last year for both Single Family (-13.4%) and Condo/Townhouse (-16.4%). This is the third consecutive month.

The best news appears in the sold numbers. Single Family sales were off only 4.9% and Condo/Townhouse sales were off only ONE unit!! Remember January sales were also ahead of last year. So even though year to date sales are still less, we have two of three months with increased sales. Two out of three "ain't" bad.

Also 22.8% of the end of month inventory of Single Family and 16.3% of Condo/Townhouse of the end of month inventory was sold. This is the highest percentage since June 2006 for Single Family and the best percentage for Condo/Townhouses since this column started in July 2005.

And the final bit of good news is the Absorption Rate. Only one Singe Family area (JFW) was higher and only two Condo/Townhouse areas (JFN, JFW) were higher.

And now the "hope that springs eternal." With inventory dropping and sales creeping up, buyers may find more urgency in their buying decisions and we might even see the prices edging up. View the numbers.

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February 2007

What's happening to the listings? For the second month in a row, end of month inventory was less than last year. There were 12.0% fewer Single Family homes on the market and 16.2% fewer Condo/Townhomes.

Sales for the month did not continue the positive direction of January. Single Family sales were down 9.2% and Condo/Townhome sales were down 12.4%. Before we panic too much, we must remember (as much as we may not want to) the January weather and that normally, many of February's closings are for properties placed under contract in January. The Absorption Rate was less in three of six areas for Single Family and less in all but one area for Condo/Townhomes.

Perhaps the bleakest part of this month's report is the Days on Market. Overall it was higher in all but three of our twelve combined reporting areas.

Combined almost 500 Jefferson County properties sold during the month. That's not bad. Granted it is not the quantity we would like to see, but homes that are properly priced are still selling. Also, the decreasing inventory should help to bolster those prices. View the numbers.

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January 2007

Oh, the January weather outside was frightful. And, therefore, the January real estate sales were also expected to be frightful. But NO! Sales for Single Family homes were UP!! UP by 8.4% and the end of month (EOM) inventory was DOWN 8.7%. The last time inventory was this low was at the end of December 2005. Only two of the Jefferson County areas (JFC and JFW) reported lower 2006 sales and only JFW had a longer Absorption Rate.

Condo/Townhouse results were equally surprising. Sales were UP 17.7% and EOM inventory was DOWN 17.0%. Only three areas (JFN, JFS and JNC) reported lower sales and only two areas (JFN and JNC) had higher Absorption Rates.

The only concern is Days on Market. All areas for both Single Family and Condo/Townhouse remain longer. The one exception, JFW for Condo/Townhouse.

Overall, this is good news and something to be optimistic about. Granted many of these closings were for properties which were placed under contract in December. But, was December weather that good? Perhaps the November and Decembers figures, which were labeled "A glimmer of hope" and "Is this a trend?" were prophetic. Just maybe, this will be the "turn around year." Let's look at the glass as being half full. View the numbers.

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